With the recent news of both Ezekiel Elliot and Melvin Gordon planning to holdout in hopes of getting new contracts, I decided to take a look back at the history of NFL holdouts. NFL contracts are an absolute joke and mean nothing. There’s the old saying that they might as well be written on toilet paper, because teams immediately look for ways to get out of paying the full amount as soon as the ink dries, and they usually can. For that reason, I fully support any player that wants to holdout and get the money they feel they deserve. But I also have no problems with teams and GMs playing hard ball and not paying these guys. The owners negotiated the CBA to give themselves all of the leverage, and have no reason to give up said leverage because the NFLPA is incompetent.
I won’t be able to go through every holdout ever, but I will breakdown a few current holdouts, as well as some in the recent past, and give a ruling on how it worked out for both the player and the team. While researching this, there were noticeable trends that were associated with holdouts in general. Some are obvious, like a player is typically coming off a career year, or a string of good seasons in a row. Some are not as obvious, like a lot of holdouts coming on the backend of a players rookie deal, where they have massively outperformed their contract, especially if they are not a first round pick. There is also positional trends in the sense that players who play “important” positions (i.e. edge rusher, wide receiver, defensive back) are more likely to see their holdout be effective and get paid.
Meanwhile, running backs have to scratch and claw to get the same money a 14th man on an NBA roster gets. And least shockingly, quarterbacks almost never have to holdout, because if you show even the smallest sliver of promise as a quarterback, somebody is going to pay you (i.e. Kirk Cousins and Nick Foles). So while it seems that running backs are the ones holding out most often, it’s mostly that teams just don’t feel the need to pay big money to a position they feel can be easily replaced with cheaper, fresher legs in the draft each year.
Before I get into the current holdouts, lets dive into the most interesting holdout I have witnessed in my lifetime. This holdout really sets the table for some of the current holdouts, and only time will tell if it actually changes how holdouts are treated, or if it didn’t matter. Lets get into it:
Le’Veon Bell – 2017 & 2018
In his first four seasons before his 2017 holdout, Bell had accrued two Pro Bowls, a First-Team All-Pro, two weed related suspensions, a torn MCL, and over 1,100 touches. After weighing all of those factors, and Bell’s asking price, the Steelers decided to franchise tag him for $12.2 million. With no long term deal, Bell skipped all of training camp, before showing up for week 1. In 2017, Bell delivered another First-Team All-Pro season behind a league leading 406 touches. The Steelers then rewarded Bell with a long term exten…wait, never mind, they decided to franchise tag him again!
The expectation for the 2018 season was that Bell would show up prior to week 1, similar to his 2017 routine. But when it came time for him to show up in the days leading up to the game, he was nowhere to be found. I don’t think we will ever get an honest and accurate depiction of what Bell’s plan was, and I think that’s because it doesn’t seem like he actually had one. His agent failed him miserably, and the whole situation made no sense. The narrative surrounding Bell was constantly changing about whether or not he would report to the team, both before and during the season.
Some clarity came from a report that under some weird CBA stipulation, because Bell had been franchise tagged twice, he didn’t have to show up in order to accrue a season, and could still become a free agent as long as the Steelers didn’t tag him again? I don’t know it was all so strange, but either way he passed up on $14.5 million guaranteed, as well as another 400+ touch season, and fell ass backwards into free agency.
He did end up getting his free agent pay day, but it was not anywhere near what he was expecting. His new deal is 4 yr(s) / $52,500,000, but he now has to play for the Jets, and his contract has an easy out for the team in year two, and he could very easily get cut in 2021.
Ruling:
For Bell personally, this was a disaster financially and there’s no debating that. But he did save himself from an extra year of punishment, and he can now be a champion for other running backs trying to holdout. He can say he did it for the betterment of the position, and not because he was being selfish selfish. Whether that’s true or not doesn’t matter, his actions have given other running backs leverage they previously didn’t have. However, his agent should be fired and never allowed to represent another professional athlete again. As for the Steelers, if Bell was there for a full season could they have won a Super Bowl last year? I don’t think so, but you still can’t throw away seasons in the NFL when windows close instantly. But they seem to be fine at the running back position without Bell.
Melvin Gordon and Ezekiel Elliot – Current
Similar to Bell, Gordon has two Pro Bowls and 1000+ touches in his first four seasons. He is scheduled to make $5.6 million this season, so to me, his holdout is completely justified and makes sense. He doesn’t have the double franchise tag loop hole that Bell had, but he can certainly miss some games and come back around week 10 in order to become a free agent next season. I will get to Vincent Jackson later, but he had a very similar situation with the Chargers as well, so the Gordon/Chargers relationship has the potential to get ugly. From the Chargers perspective, paying him this season makes absolutely no sense, unless Gordon really is prepared to sit out into the season. He is under contract, and plays a position that has a high injury risk, and you might be better off letting him walk after the season and drafting his replacement. This situation will be very interesting to monitor and I expect it to last into the season if the Chargers do not make a compelling offer.
Zeke really has no leverage other than he is a star, and Jerry Jones loves keeping his stars happy. He has two years left on his deal, and I’ll spare you the details, but he can either have a lengthy holdout this season or next season. He cannot have back to back lengthy holdouts, or he will not hit free agency in two years, due to weird service time rules. So keep an eye on August 6th this year as the date he needs to show up by if he intends on having a lengthy holdout next year. I expect Elliot to show up for camp August 6th.
Julio Jones/Michael Thomas/AJ Green – Current
Green is not currently holding out, but I included him as an example of someone who has frequently expressed frustration with his contract situation, and it almost cost him by showing up to camp. He suffered and ankle sprain that will sideline him 6-8 weeks, so while this is not the worst news, if the injury was season ending, it would be a different story. He would be heading into free agency coming off a major injury, and his financial future would be in serious doubt as he enters into his age 32 season.
Julio Jones did show up to camp, but he is still in the midst of contract negotiations, and coming off of offseason surgery. So he won’t be on the field risking injury regardless until he feels ready, which feels like a holdout with better PR behind it. There is also the game of chicken between each player and all teams involved, because the first receiver to sign an extension will likely be the lowest paid of the wide receivers holding out.
This is what makes holding out somewhat of an art form, and Michael Thomas is another guy using the holdout as a way to demand big money. Thomas fits the bill of a highly productive player in the last year of his rookie deal. He is looking for $20+ million a year and in my eyes is worth it. I think he gets paid, it’s just a matter of how much and when, and both of those things will be something Julio Jones, AJ Green, and Amari Cooper will have their eyes on as well.
Past Holdouts
Darrelle Revis – 2010
After a First-Team All-Pro season in 2009, Revis held out and skipped all of training camp and the preseason. Scheduled to make $1 million in 2010, his holdout earned him a 4 yr / $32,000,000 deal, and he followed that up with two consecutive First-Team All-Pro seasons. In the third year of his deal, Revis tore his ACL, and was subsequently traded to the Bucs.
Ruling:
Realistically, this holdout worked well for both sides. Revis showed he was worth more than his rookie deal, and performed to the level that was expected of him when he did get paid. It worked so well, Revis returned to the Jets later in his career…that stint didn’t go as well.
Chris Johnson – 2011
While on his rookie deal, Johnson had his legendary CJ2K season in 2009, where he rushed for over 2,000 yards and averaged over 156 yards per game from scrimmage. An unreal season, and he came back the next season with another Pro Bowl campaign (his third consecutive), before holding out in 2011. His holdout was a success after the Titans made him the highest paid back in the NFL with a 4 yr / $53,500,000 contract that he did not live up to at all. While he did rush for over 1,000 yards each of the next three seasons, he just wasn’t the same guy. He never made another Pro Bowl and was released after the 2013 season.
Ruling:
This was a pretty damaging case for running back holdouts. The Titans paid for his past production, and after riding him into the ground his first three years in the league, they thought he still had a lot left in the tank. But 1,000+ touches in three years is a lot of miles and it put him over the hill at the age of 26. Nobody can take that CJ2K season away though.
Vincent Jackson: 2010
This holdout has a lot of parallels to Melvin Gordon’s current holdout. After back to back strong seasons including a pro bowl in 2009, Jackson was suspended the first 3 games of the 2010 season under the personal conduct policy. Even with the suspension, Jackson still held out and refused to sign his one year tender. Knowing that he would not accrue a year of service time if he didn’t show up for the final 6 games, and with no long term deal on the table, he gave in. He signed his tender and showed up with 9 weeks left in the season, sat out 3 games for the suspension, and played the last 6 weeks. Following the NFL lockout that offseason, the Chargers franchise tagged Jackson for $11.4 million. He did not holdout following being tagged, and had a Pro Bowl season, but left as an unrestricted free agent for the Bucs in 2012 on a 5 yr / $55,500,000 deal.
Ruling:
While Jackson did have to give up half a season in the prime of his career, he eventually did get paid, both by the Chargers for a season, and got a long term deal. By playing hard ball, the Chargers were down their number one receiver for most of the 2010 season, but they didn’t feel that he was worth an extension, and it will be fascinating to see if they feel the same way about Gordon.
Larry Johnson – 2007
Larry Johnson got a chance to shine after injuries shortened Priest Holmes’ career, and the Chiefs weren’t shy about giving him the ball. Johnson set an NFL record with 416 carries, and was a First-Team All-Pro in 2006. Heading into the 2007 season, Johnson held out through the first two preseason games, before signing a 6 yr / $45,000,000 extension. The wheels immediately fell off following Johnson’s extension, and it was clear there was no value in his contract. After injuries and a suspension, he was released in the middle of the 2009 season.
Ruling:
Larry Johnson’s holdout did let him sign the biggest contract in Chiefs’ history at the time. But back to one of my original points, NFL contracts mean nothing and the Chiefs got out from his deal with relative ease. So even when the players win, do they really?
Honorable Mentions That Would’ve Made This A Ridiculously Longer Post Than It Already Is:
Terrell Owens, Aaron Donald, Khalil Mack, Marshawn Lynch, Kam Chancellor, Carson Palmer. Let me know who else was left off.
The Jackpot 